Most people would agree that right now is not a great time to be Donald Trump.
The one-term, twice-impeached, twice-indicted ex-president is facing more than 70 criminal charges, with more on the horizon. And now, a bunch of polls were just released that all spell out trouble for his 2024 presidential prospects.
Let’s start with the latest from Pew Research. It found that Trump is becoming more and more unfavorable among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents as the primary season heats up.
The poll, which was conducted between July 10 and 16, found his “unfavorable” rating amongst conservative voters up from 24% in 2022 to 32% in 2023. Even more alarming, his “favorable” rating has fallen nearly 10 points, going from 75% in 2022 to 66% in 2023. That’s not the trajectory one wants to be on when the first primaries still more than six months away.
Trump is still the party’s frontrunner, however. At least, for now.
According to FiveThirtyEight‘s latest average, the 77-year-old is currently pulling in an average of 50.8% support amongst Republicans in national polls, far outpacing his closest opponent, Ron “Don’t Say Gay” DeSantis, who’s been hovering around 20% support for a while now.
That said, primary season has only just begun and there’s still plenty of time for Trump’s support to wane and another candidate to take the lead.
In other terrible Trump polling news, another survey has found the vast majority of registered voters support the federal investigation into his role in the January 6 insurrection as well as his failed efforts to overthrow the 2020 presidential election results.
A Harvard University CAPS/Harris Poll conducted July 19 and 20 found 57% of respondents said the case against Trump is either “very strong” or “somewhat strong”. That includes 87% of Democrats, 47% of independents, and 31% of Republicans.
On top of that, 42% said they believe the ex-president is probably guilty of the potential charges he could be facing, while 37% said he is likely innocent and shouldn’t be charged.
Meanwhile, a fifth of respondents said he might be guilty but shouldn’t be indicted because the charges would be “too political” and, god forbid, might interfere with the 2024 election.
Last week, special counsel Jack Smith sent a target letter on behalf of the Justice Department letting Trump know another federal indictment is likely on the way. He was given four days to decide whether to appear before a grand jury, which he declined, instead opting to issue an ALL CAPS statement on Truth Social about witch hunts and bad actors and blah, blah, blah.
Finally, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from July 13 to 17 showed the vast majority Americans think all the scandals surrounding Trump, including the whole Stormy Daniels hush money thing and stealing classified documents from the White House and then storing them in the bathroom of his golf club, are pretty trashy and should disqualify him from running for public office.
When asked whether they believe he’s ever committed a serious crime at any point in his life, 51% of respondents answered in the affirmative and 21% said they weren’t sure. 27% said no.
Asked whether, if convicted of a serious crime in the coming months, Trump should drop out of the race, 60% of respondents answered yes and 13% said they didn’t know, while 27% said he should keep going.
And asked whether, if convicted of a serious crime in the coming months and sentenced to prison, Trump should continue his presidential run from behind bars, 64% said he should probably give it up by that point and 13% said they were on the fence about it. Meanwhile, 22% said he shouldn’t let prison stop him from trying to make American great again, again.
So, what’s the take away from all this?
Mainly, none of this good for Trump. Sure, he has his diehard supporters who will stand by him no matter what, but they’re not enough to win him another four years in the White House, and they might not even be enough to win him the Republican nomination to get there. That remains to be seen until after the debates are underway.
The first GOP primary debate is scheduled for August 23 in Milwaukee and is expected to be a bloodbath. So far, six candidates have qualified to appear on stage: Trump, “Don’t Say Gay” DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie, with Trump’s former VP, Mike Pence, edging closer.
Get ready, folx. Things are about to get wild.